Colleagues:

Click on the link near the bottom of this message for ARA's Third Quarter U.S. Market Update.

Well, the light at the end of the tunnel is a little brighter but the industry's speed reaching it is still somewhat slow.

  • New construction remains virtually non-existent and will remain so for several years. Only Chicago's CBD will deliver any significant supply in '10 and '11.
  • Cap rates are flat or have risen in 78% of our markets. But for the first time in many quarters we're experiencing some downward pressure on cap rates in six select markets, mainly due to (a) private capital creating competitive bidding and (b) continued attractive debt from DUS lenders.
  • Occupancies do not show any improvement. Many landlords seem to have hit the wall on concessions and, therefore, effective rents are a mixed bag and attention is focused on tenant retention. Traffic has increased in many cases, but it's often the same renter shopping more properties for the best deal.
In the past month I've heard evidence of pension fund clients cancelling their fund redemption requests. Strong equity markets have increased the denominator while write downs have decreased the numerator - the new math eh? These same institutions think they will be back in the market by mid to late '10. That should give better attention to the $50 mil+ transactions.

In closing, please note the strong performance of Seniors Housing... all arrows going in the right direction!

Please CLICK HERE to access ARA's Third Quarter U.S. Market update.

My Best,
Gary

p.s. As always, drop me a line with any feedback you have.
 
 
 


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